8 July 2024Updated 38 minutes ago
Schools have already broken up for summer holidays in Scotland and Northern Ireland with holidays looming large for England and Wales, but it’s summer itself that seems to be on a lengthy holiday.
It’s been a cool start to July and some places have already had more than their July average rainfall.
Some parts of England, especially in East Anglia, the Midlands and the south-east, have already seen around a month’s worth of rain.
Up to Monday morning the wettest spot compared to its expected monthly average was Northolt in west London, with 66mm of rain in the first seven days of the month – 139% of the total we would expect there for the whole of July.
But it hasn’t been as wet everywhere – rainfall amounts are much closer to average so far this July overall in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
This week the jet stream is sinking to the south of the UK
How can it be so wet?
The jet stream is responsible for making and moving around areas of high and low pressure. Over recent weeks the jet stream pattern has got a bit stuck with troughs over Greenland and the North Atlantic forming low pressures that have subsequently tracked slowly over the UK bringing unsettled weather.
The low pressures have been slow-moving because frequently in north-east Europe we have had higher pressure than normal, which has slowed the progress of the lows.
But it’s not just over recent weeks that we have been getting a soaking – last year was the 11th wettest for the UK, with records going back to 1836.
And why is it so cold?
It’s been a very cool start to July with temperatures widely two to three Celsius below average. We have had a persistent cool feed of air across the UK with cloud blocking out the powerful July sunshine.
If we remember back to last month we also had a very cold start to June with similar temperature anomalies. However a blast of summer heat in the final week of the month meant temperatures finished off just 0.4C below average.
Much of the UK can expect rain over the next few days
The weather has got to get better, hasn’t it?
Low pressure will continue to move north over the UK and stagnate for a few days giving yet more rain, with weather warnings issued for Scotland and concerns of some localised flooding.
The rest of the week stays unsettled with the dregs of the low pressure bringing showery weather conditions, which aree expected to loiter into next week too.
However, temperatures at least look more likely to be close or a little above average so there will be some warm spells of July sunshine too.
Keep up to date with our latest forecasts online and via the BBC Weather app.
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